大阪都構想と憲法改正

橋下大阪市長が推し進めてきた大阪都構想の是非を問う大阪市の住民投票の結果が出ました。

結果は現状維持ということになりましたが、政界からの引退を表明した橋下氏の今後の身の振り方に大夫注目が集まっているようです。

イギリスの経済誌エコノミスト(5月21日号)はA bitterly fought referendum in Osaka has national implications「激しい戦いとなった大阪市の住民投票には国家的に見て重要な意味がある」と題する記事を載せています。

大阪市の既存の24の区を大阪府のもとで新たな5つの地域に統合して財源を蓄えるという大阪都構想Osaka Metropolisは住民投票の結果、否決されました。

地元の役人や政治家たちは定数削減で自分たちの職が減らされるとの心配から激しく反対して勝利をしたが、結果は11000票という僅差だったと書かれています。

そしてこの大阪市の住民投票を大阪からはるか遠く離れたところで安倍晋三内閣が注意深く見守っていたとも書かれています。

安倍首相が注目する理由とはー

the government viewed the Osaka poll as a sort of dress rehearsal for a future referendum on revising the constitution.

「安倍政権は大阪市の住民投票を将来行われる憲法改正国民投票の予行演習と見ていた。」

※dress rehearsalと は本番用の舞台衣装をつけての本稽古という意味です。

大阪都構想は否決されたとはいえ、若い投票者たちが橋下氏のような強力な政治指導者による大胆な措置(大阪都構想)を支持している、つまりこれは若者たちが憲法改正を支持していると安倍政権ではとらえているようです。

橋下氏に熱いエールを送っている安倍首相ですが、橋下氏が市長退任後、自民党政権に迎えられるという噂も出ていますが、それはどうも眉唾物のようです。


大阪都構想は否決されたとはいえ、これまでの日本の政治に大きなインパクトを与えた橋下氏。橋下氏が抜けたあと、維新の会を中心とした野党再編成はスムーズに行くのでしょうか。

弱体化している野党が一時的に連合したとしても、憲法改正を目指している安倍政権に立ち向かうことは出来ないでしょう。

安倍政権は長期安定政権へと向かう?

















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A bitterly fought referendum in Osaka has national implications

May 21st 2015 | TOKYO | Asia

WHEN Toru Hashimoto, Osaka’s mayor (pictured), rowed with the chief of an anti-Korean hate-speech group last year—and nearly took a swing at him—a video of the spectacle was wildly popular on YouTube. Fans of Mr Hashimoto will have been downcast to hear that he could bow out of politics at the end of his term, in December. On May 17th the mayor lost a public referendum on his pet scheme to unify the government of the city of Osaka, Japan’s second-biggest, with that of its prefecture. The setback is a stunning reversal for a politician who once enthralled the country.

Osaka’s economy is in the doldrums and its finances deep in the red. Mr Hashimoto’s bold idea, “Osaka Metropolis”, was to save money by replacing its 24 existing wards with five new districts under the prefectural government. But critics seized upon his decision last year to withdraw a scheme for free bus and metro passes from the elderly. They warned it was a sign that Mr Hashimoto’s plan to reorganise the city would mean swingeing cuts to public services. Bitterly opposed local bureaucrats and politicians, whose positions were to be eliminated under the scheme, declared victory. But the result was close, with a margin of fewer than 11,000 votes, out of about 1.4m ballots cast.


Beyond Osaka, the poll was watched closely by the government of Shinzo Abe, the prime minister. He had backed Mr Hashimoto’s project. The two men are friends who share a number of nationalist causes—including the aim of revising Japan’s post-war constitution, which was written by America. Indeed the government viewed the Osaka poll as a sort of dress rehearsal for a future referendum on revising the constitution. An adviser to Mr Abe says hopefully that at least younger voters proved to be welcoming of “radical steps by a strongman”; Mr Abe is counting on them to back constitutional change, too.

Yet Mr Hashimoto’s defeat has probably harmed Mr Abe’s plans on the constitution. For the LDP had hoped to secure the support of the right-leaning Japan Innovation Party (JIP), which Mr Hashimoto co-founded, to help muster the two-thirds majority it needs in both houses of parliament to revise the constitution (as well as public assent). But the party descended into turmoil this week, after its current president stood down, to be replaced by a lacklustre interim leader. The chances of Mr Abe succeeding in revising the constitution have dwindled, says Gerald Curtis of Columbia University in New York.

Mr Hashimoto’s promise to retire from politics by the end of this year is convincing to no one. Rumours are already swirling that Mr Abe may even bring him into his cabinet. That would raise eyebrows, because of outrage Mr Hashimoto provoked in early 2013 by remarking that the imperial army’s system of wartime sex slaves was necessary for maintaining military morale. But Mr Hashimoto’s nationalism is often nuanced. He has also suggested that Osaka prefecture could share with Okinawa the burden of playing host to the Americans’ unpopular Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft; and that Japan should co-manage with South Korea the islets of Dokdo, which Seoul controls and which Tokyo claims as Takeshima. He remains a refreshingly unpredictable right-winger.