カルロス・ゴーンの逮捕で日本とフランスの自動車連合に亀裂 [経済]

カルロス・ゴーンの逮捕で日本とフランスの自動車連合に亀裂

The New York Times  2018/11/23

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パリ近郊のブローニュ=ビヤンクールにあるルノー本社

「和訳」
自動車業界の帝国がそのリーダーを投獄するのにふさわしい時など決してないだろう。しかし、日産、ルノーにとって、カルロス・ゴーン氏の逮捕は特に悪い時期に起きてしまった。

日産、ルノーはゴーン率いるアライアンス(連合)内部で騒動を起こしている暇はない。今は自動車の世界マーケットが沈滞し、トランプ政権が引き起こしている貿易戦争で自動車部品の供給プロセスに支障をきたし、さらにはシリコンバレーが資金力豊かな新しい競争相手を次々に生み出している時なのだ。

今週、カルロス・ゴーン氏は報酬額を虚偽記載した容疑で東京で逮捕されたが、この逮捕により、ルノーと1999年にゴーンがかじ取りを始めた日産、そして2016年に三菱自動車が加わった3社連合に深い亀裂が生じた。

いま行われているゴーン氏の法的手続きがどのような結果になっても、今後ゴーン氏は今までのような地位を確保することはないだろう。それどころか、日産がこれまで以上に連合内での運営に参加を要求してくるようになるため、連合内部に破壊的な権力闘争が起きかねない。日産の販売台数はルノーよりも多いにもかかわらず、ルノーは3社連合内では経営の主導権を握っているため、日産の経営陣を苦しめているような状態となっている。
西川広人社長は、月曜日に逮捕されたゴーン氏に対して憎しみを隠そうとはしなかった。正式には告訴されてはいないが、西川社長は月曜日、「会社として断じて容認出来る行為ではない。」と述べ、ゴーン氏の会長職の解任を要求した。

日産取締役会は木曜日、不正会計に関与しているとして、ゴーン氏の会長職の解任と前取締役人事部長グレッグ・ケリー氏の代表取締役の解任を全会一致で決議した。 昨年、ゴーン氏は日産の最高経営責任者を辞任したが、その後会長職に留まり、アライアンス(3社連合)の指揮をずっと執ってきた。さらに三菱自動車とルノーでも会長職に就いていた。

取締役会で出された声明では、長期にわたる日産とルノーとの連合パートナーシップはこれまでと変わらない、連合パートナーと日々協力していき、ゴーン氏逮捕によって生じることが見込まれる影響や混乱を少なくしていくと強調した。

声明は説得力があり、産業界の経済的現実に沿ったものであった。日産・ルノーの自動車メーカー2社がどのような問題を抱えているにしても、(連合を解消して)1社のみの経営となれば、もっと経営が悪化することになるだろう。他の自動車メーカーではかつてはライバルであった競争会社と業務提携をして、電気自動車、いわゆる自動運転車の開発に要する莫大な経費を共有したりしている。

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記者会見に臨む日産の西川広人社長―                           逮捕されたゴーン氏に憎しみを隠そうとはしなかった。

フィアット・クライスラーは大手他社のカーメーカーとの統合の意向を公言している。フォードとフォルクスワーゲンも商用車の生産で協力していくことを検討している。ホンダとゼネラルモーターズも自立走行車の開発で提携を結んでいる。

「連合の解消はすべてのパートナーにとって、非常に悪い影響を与えることになるだろう。自動車メーカー1社のみの経営だと連合のときよりも経営がより難しくなるということをカーメーカー各社はよくわかっている。連合から離脱することは時代の流れに逆らうことになるだろう。」と話すのは市場リサーチ会社のJATOダイナミクスでグローバルアナリシストのヘリップ氏。

ゴーン氏逮捕による混乱がなかったとしても、日産とルノーは深刻な問題を抱えていた。両社とも販売台数や売り上げの減少に苦しんでいた。日産の今年7月から9月までの収益は2,8%のダウンで2,8兆円。全世界での販売台数は、前年同期の1%減の140万台、収益は8%減少して1300億円となった。

ルノーの7月から9月期の収益は、あらたに傘下入りしたロシアのカーメーカーを含めて、6%ダウンの130億ドル、ルノーブランドの販売台数は5%ダウンの492,000台。ルノーは同期の利益は報告しなかったが、2018年度の上半期の純利益は16%ダウンの2571,4億円だった。

ある程度、自動車メーカーは自社ではコントロールすることが出来ない環境の犠牲者とも言える。日産は世界最大の車市場であるアメリカと中国での景気後退に見舞われた。ルノーはアフリカやインドなどの新興市場で経済減速に苦しんだ。ルノーはイランに大々的に進出したのだが、アメリカがイランに経済制裁を再開したために、イラン市場から撤退せざるを得なくなり、アメリカの軍事行動の巻き添えで損害を被ってしまった。



「参考」
ニューヨーク・タイムズ(The New York Times)は、アメリカ合衆国ニューヨーク州ニューヨーク市に本社を置く、新聞社並びに同社が発行している高級日刊新聞紙。アメリカ合衆国内での発行部数はUSAトゥデイ(211万部)、ウォール・ストリート・ジャーナル(208万部)に次いで第3位(103万部)。 出典: フリー百科事典『ウィキペディア(Wikipedia)』

「英文記事」

Ghosn Arrest Exposes Stress in Japanese-French Auto Marriage


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The Renault headquarters in Boulogne-Billancourt, near Paris. Credit Gonzalo Fuentes/Reuters

By Jack Ewing

New York Times 2018/11/23

There is probably never a good time for an auto empire to have its leader thrown in jail. But for Nissan and Renault, the arrest of Carlos Ghosn comes at an especially inopportune moment.

The two carmakers can ill afford turmoil in the alliance headed by Mr. Ghosn when the global auto market is entering a downturn, a trade war provoked by the Trump administration is interfering with supply chains and Silicon Valley is spawning well-financed new competitors.

Mr. Ghosn’s arrest in Tokyo this week on suspicion that he deceived Japanese authorities about his pay package, exposed deep fissures in the union between Renault and Nissan that he engineered in 1999, and which Mitsubishi Motors joined in 2016.

Whatever the outcome of legal proceedings against Mr. Ghosn, he is unlikely to regain his previous stature. Instead, analysts said, there could be a destructive power struggle within the alliance as Nissan tries to assert more control. Renault has been the dominant partner of the three carmakers even though Nissan sells more cars, a state of affairs that appears to rankle executives in Tokyo.

Hiroto Saikawa, the chief executive of Nissan, made no attempt to disguise his enmity toward Mr. Ghosn after his arrest Monday. Even though Mr. Ghosn has not been formally charged with a crime, Mr. Saikawa told reporters Monday that his boss’s behavior had been intolerable and he would recommend his removal as the company’s chairman.

The Nissan board followed through on Thursday with a unanimous vote to remove Mr. Ghosn as chairman and to eliminate Greg Kelly, a board member and former human resources director, who has also been implicated in the financial misconduct allegation. Mr. Ghosn stepped down as Nissan’s chief executive last year, but remained chairman and continued to lead the alliance, also serving as chairman at Mitsubishi, and chairman and chief executive at Renault.

The board also emphasized, in a statement, that “the long-standing Alliance partnership with Renault remains unchanged and that the mission is to minimize the potential impact and confusion on the day-to-day cooperation among the Alliance partners.”

The statement was telling — and fell in line with the economic realities of the industry. Regardless of whatever problems the two carmakers may be having in their relationship, analysts say, they would be in much worse shape alone. Other car companies are trying to get bigger, joining forces with onetime rivals so they can share the enormous costs of developing electric, so-called self-driving cars.

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Hiroto Saikawa, the chief executive of Nissan, made no attempt to disguise his enmity toward Mr. Ghosn after his arrest Monday.CreditBehrouz Mehri/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles has made no secret about its desire to merge with another big carmaker. Ford and Volkswagen are discussing cooperation on the production of commercial vehicles. Honda and General Motors have formed a partnership to develop autonomous vehicles.

“Breaking the alliance would be a very negative thing for all of the parties,” said Felipe Munoz, global analyst at JATO Dynamics, a market research firm. “Carmakers are realizing that being alone is more difficult. Going out of the alliance would be going against the trend.”

Even without the turmoil caused by Mr. Ghosn’s arrest, Nissan and Renault were facing serious problems. Both suffered declines in sales and profits this year. Nissan revenue fell 2.6 percent from July through September, to 2.8 trillion yen or $25 billion. The company sold 1.4 million cars worldwide, a 1 percent decline, and profit fell 8 percent to 130 billion yen.

Renault reported a 6 percent decrease in revenue from July through September, to €11.5 billion or $13 billion including its stake in a Russian carmaker. Sales of Renault brand cars fell 5 percent to 492,000 vehicles. Renault did not report profit for the quarter but said its net income in the first half of 2018 fell 16 percent to €2 billion.

To some extent the companies were victims of circumstances beyond their control. Nissan was hit by slowdowns in the United States and China, the world’s two biggest car markets. Renault suffered from declines in emerging markets like Africa and India. Renault also felt some collateral damage in a geopolitical conflict after it bet big on Iran, then was forced to withdraw after the United States restored sanctions.

But analysts also question company strategies that Mr. Ghosn, the dominant personality at Nissan, Renault, Mitsubishi and the alliance among them, championed. The United States is a prominent example.

Nissan has long been perceived as the No. 3 Japanese automaker in America after Toyota and Honda. As the auto industry recovered after the 2008 recession, Mr. Ghosn laid out a new global strategy that called for increasing the company’s U.S. market share to more than 10 percent — about a 50 percent increase from2007 — in hopes of pushing past Honda.

To drive sales, Nissan heavily discounted prices, often in ways that caused dealers to lose money on some sales. Under a strategy called “Grow or Go,” it pushed small dealerships to sell or close their franchises. At the same time it favored certain “preferred” dealers by secretly paying them up to $1 million or more to help them build plush, new showrooms.

While Nissan achieved its market-share goal for a while, it also alienated many dealers, and even some who were profitable sold their franchises because of the company’s practices.
Carlos Ghosn, former chairman and chief executive of Renault-Nissan Alliance. The Nissan board followed through on Thursday with a unanimous vote to remove Mr. Ghosn as chairman.CreditEmma Foster/EPA, via Shutterstock

And this year, with overall United States sales flat, Nissan’s sales have declined 6.5 percent through October. It has been particularly hard hit by slumping sales of sedans.

“They have increased market share,” said Michelle Krebs, executive analyst at Autotrader, an online buying and selling platform. “But they have not done it in a way that is healthy.”
Nissan is not in a good position now that the United States market is losing steam, Ms. Krebs said.
“Car sales are edging downward,” she said. “Other carmakers are ramping up their incentives. Where have they got to go? They already have big incentives.”

Renault would be in an even weaker position as a stand-alone company. It is a minor player in China and has no presence in the United States. Without a substantial footprint in those two giant markets, it has little hope of achieving the scale needed to bargain for the best prices from suppliers and invest in new technologies.

All traditional carmakers are trying to maintain their existing businesses, rooted in internal combustion engines, and at the same time they are investing heavily to develop autonomous, electric vehicles. Those new products are not yet generating profits, and there is competition from companies like Uber and Google, which are using their formidable financial resources to move into the car companies’ turf.

Car companies also face higher prices for steel and aluminum because of tariffs that President Trump has imposed on imports from foreign producers. And the levies he has imposed on Chinese goods, prompting retaliatory tariffs from China, have interfered with the flow of car parts.

Those challenges may help explain why Renault has been more reluctant than Nissan to cut Mr. Ghosn loose. The company appointed an interim replacement, Thierry Bolloré, the company’s chief operating officer. But Mr. Ghosn remains chief executive even though he occupies a jail cell in Tokyo, apparently prohibited even from communicating with his family.

Sooner or later, though, the companies will not be able to avoid a painful re-examination of their relationship.
“We have seen there are differences,” Mr. Munoz of JATO Dynamics said, “as beautiful as it seemed when Ghosn was in charge.”





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